The Milan Derby is always special, but the upcoming match at San Siro has a number of added incentives for Inter and AC Milan. For a start, just one-point separates both teams in the table. A victory for Inter is almost essential in the quest for Champion League football, especially given the Nerazzurri has a tough run-in with games against Lazio, Napoli, Juventus, Roma and Atalanta still to come.
But this match also has the feel of two teams who are on the up again. Yes, both Milan sides are still a considerable distance behind Napoli and Juventus, but a slow-build towards challenging for the title again is on the cards. The match is almost too close to call according to bookmakers, but that won’t stop the game being a big betting event.
Below we will take a look at some of the more interesting betting lines in the match, which will kick-off at 7.30pm GMT on 17th March. Odds are supplied by 888sport, which will also be covering the match with live betting markets:
AC Milan have been made the slight favourites with odds of 31/20 going against Inter’s 37/20. AC Milan have not beaten Inter in Serie A for over three years now, so Luciano Spalletti and Inter fans should have plenty of confidence going in to the game. However, five of the last 10 derbies in all competitions have ended in draws, so the draw at 43/20 looks like a statistically astute bet.
Predicting the correct score can be tricky when it comes to betting, but, as we know, Milan derbies have been fairly tight in recent times. Inter fans would be happy enough with a repeat of the last-gasp winner scored by Mauro Icardi in October. A repeat of that 1-0 victory is given odds of 15/2, with AC Milan 13/2 to win by the same scoreline. A 0-0 draw is also given a price of 15/2. Want something spectacular? A 4-3 Inter victory is chalked up at odds of 160/1.
A very interesting market for Inter here: Only Juventus have opened the scoring more than Inter in Serie A this season. Spalletti’s men have, in fact, scored first in 18 out of 27 games, making the odds of 10/11 (stakes are returned if the game ends 0-0) for Inter to open the scoring another statistically shrewd bet. AC Milan, who have opened the scoring in 59% of matches, are shorter at 3/4.
In 2016 and 2017, the Milan Derbies had a run of high scoring games, best summed up by the thrilling 3-2 Inter victory in October 2017, with Icardi once again popping up again with a last-minute winner. But the three games since that time have only yielded two goals in total. For that reason, it looks smart to go for under 2.5 goals at 4/6, but even going under 1.5 goals looks tempting at 43/20.
Readers of this site will no doubt want to see a comprehensive victory for Inter, allowing them to march on through the spring and secure Champions League football. However, from a neutral perspective this looks like a draw. Perhaps a cagey affair, with both managers unwilling to roll the dice. Odds of 18/5 for a draw with both teams scoring looks like an interesting punt, leaving both teams still with all to play for in the coming weeks.