We may only be on matchday 4 of the Serie A season so far, but this weekend Inter will face their toughest challenge to date, against AC Milan in the the Derby della Madoninna.

Inter have gotten off to a perfect start to this campaign with 3 wins in 3.  Meanwhile Milan could’ve, and perhaps should’ve done a bit better, with 2 wins in 3 games.  Here we will be having a look at how both of the sides head into this match and what we can expect as a result.

Attack:

Inter head into this match with an average of 2.33 goals so far and a xG average of 1.7. This is rather promising as we are scoring more than is expected and one thing that Inter were lacking last year was the ability to create and score more often.

On the flip side of this, Milan have averaged only 0.67 goals per game and a xG of 0.99. Looking at this it appears that not only are Milan failing to create chances, they are also not successful and tucking them away. Couple these with the problems Giampaolo has had with formation and fitting his players to his system, it is highly likely that he may find himself banging his head against as brick wall in trying to find a way through the Inter defense.

Defense:

Speaking of defense, Inter finished last season with the second best defense in the league, beaten only by Juventus, and have started this season continuing that pattern. Of the three games played so far, Inter have conceded 1 goal, and an xG of 0.55. Matching that with Milan’s inability to create or score chances, there is a decent chance Inter could come out of this game with another clean sheet.

Milan have started the season with 2 clean sheets and one goal conceded also, which is positive for the Rossoneri, and a slightly higher xG of 0.83.  Milan’s defense could prove to be a tough nut to crack for Inter, and the goal/s may have to come from a set piece for example.

Build-up play:

Inter’s build up play has been completely overhauled this year with the arrival of Antonio Conte.  Throughout the past couple of years Inter had the lion’s share of possession but no end product to show for it with the opposing team sitting 10 mean behind the ball.

This has changed this year, with Inter drawing pressure from the opposition inside their own half and breaking fast up the other end.  Inter have averaged 61% possession in the first three matches so far and 18 shots on goal (40% on target).  Although they have lost the ball 87.33 times they have recovered 80.67 back.

Milan have averaged a similar share of the ball so far with 62% although they have managed fewer shots on goal and even fewer on target 14 and 18% respectively.  It is worth pointing out that Milan have also averaged more ball losses with 92.67 and fewer recoveries with 70.67.

Overall:

If recent form has anything to suggest, then I have Inter coming out victorious against Milan, but as we all know, derbies are their own beast and nothing can be taken for granted.  Over the course of history, Inter have amassed the most wins with 76, Milan have won 74 times and there have been 63 draws.  I think we can all agree that this will be a closely fought contest and has all the makings to go down as one of the greats.

Key players:

Here I will choose a player from each team who I think will have a key role to play in the outcome of the result.  For Inter I choose Stefano Sensi, maybe an obvious choice as he is clearly Inters best player right now and is already looking like he could be one of the best signings of the season in the Serie A.

For Milan I have chosen Suo who is one of these players who absolutely thrives playing in matches like this and can produce something really special. He may not have had the best start to the season, but you just can’t write him off and I expect him to play an important role for Milan.

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