Statistical & Tactical Analysis Of How New Signing Denzel Dumfries Will Fit Into Simone Inzaghi’s Inter

Statistical & Tactical Analysis Of How New Signing Denzel Dumfries Will Fit Into Simone Inzaghi’s Inter
September 4, 2021 10:30
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This series takes a look at the latest signings and statistically analyzes those individuals’ contributions and how they compare to the current squad. 

Like the Edin Džeko article before it, instead of comparing Denzel Dumfries to similar members of the current squad, this will compare him to the out-going player he is meant to replace: Achraf Hakimi. 

While both play on the right wing, Hakimi plays more of a midfielder role and Dumfries more of a full or wing-back.  Regardless, we will compare their attacking and defensive abilities equally.

These stats are derived from FBref.com and Wyscout.com, and are provided in “per game” or percentage format.

Attacking Stats:

In simple goal contributions, Hakimi provided 7 goals and 9 assists in his 35 games while Dumfries only bagged 1 non-penalty goal and also 9 assists in his equal 35 games. 

Their comparative “expected goals and expected assists” per match is Hakimi’s 0.37 to Dumfries’ 0.29.  That’s closer than was anticipated.

Both of their shots-on-target are rather close as well: Hakimi’s 36.4% accurate to Dumfries’ 34.5%, with an attempt on target every 45 minutes and 28 minutes respectively.

Being wide men, a lot of their job is creating chances and they are actually very close in this regard: Hakimi providing 2.38 shot-creating-actions per game to Dumfries’ 2.29; and 0.57 to 0.53 goal-creating-actions per game as well. 

Hakimi has a pass success rate of 82.3% to Dumfries’ 71.4%, and these are “key passes” (those directly leading to a shot) 1.16 and 0.7 times per game.

They are also both good at dribbling while Hakimi is slightly more successful at 55.3% to 50%.  Hakimi is also the much better crosser: 4.17 attempted per game to 1.92 and a success rate of 37.6% to 21.2%, respectively.

Defensive Stats:

Okay, so what about defensive contributions, because Inter’s wingers are expected to get involved.  

Dumfries performs 3.17 tackles and interceptions per game to Hakimi’s 2.62, but he also performs twice as many clearances than Hakimi per game (2.28 to 0.92), more aerial duels (4.04 to 0.51), wins his aerial duels over twice as much (74.2% to 34%), and just more successful defensive actions overall per match: 10.7 to Hakimi’s 7.28.

So what do the numbers tell us?

Hakimi was a painful loss to the Inter Milan family but, if we were going to lose him to a bigger club eventually anyways then, in his place, they have acquired someone who is not far off in expected goal contributions while also getting someone much more defensively involved. 

This is the kind of wide player I personally hoped we fill in on both sides.  If Inter can maintain Dimarco’s growth, while keeping his and Darmian’s ‘expected goals and assists’ high, then this should turn out to be an exciting replacement.

Previous article in this series:

By Andrew Allan

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