This series takes a look at the latest signings and statistically analyzes those individuals’ contributions and how they compare to the current squad.

The Inter Milan family welcomed Felipe Caicedo as the second, and last, signing during this Winter Transfer window. 

It has yet to be reported what the exact specifics of the loan are, but it is assumed to be a simple, short, 6-month spell without any obligations or options thereafter.

This does also appear to be a quick band-aid for Correa’s second consecutive hamstring injury, one that will see him out for yet another month; the previous was nearly all of December.

Nevertheless, we will be comparing Felipe Caicedo to Edin Džeko here; the “target-man” starter to his assumed rotational backup.  

Considering we are halfway through the season, this commentary will use the last full season’s stats (2020/21) to get a bigger picture of their comparison.

All stats are derived from FBref.com and are provided in “per 90-minutes” or percentages.

Attacking Stats:

As with always, the first comparison is goal contributions.  Caicedo gave Lazio 9 goals and no assists for a .68 per game average; Džeko gave 14 goals and 4 assists for a .48 per game average.

Džeko provided more shots on target per game (1.34 to 1.01) and was on target by a higher percentage than Caicedo (42% to 35%).  

Džeko also provided more “shot creating actions” than Caicedo: 3 to 2.54 per game.  As a taller and purer “target man”, Džeko (6’3”/193cm) won more of his aerial duels: 64% to Caicedo’s (6’/183cm) 51%.

Caicedo does seem to be better on the ball though: his receiving is 64% to Džeko’s 60%; and he is a much more successful dribbler than Džeko (78% to 50%); although they progressed and carried the ball similar amounts. 

Caicedo is also the better passer overall: 76% to Džeko’s 67%.

So, what can be surmised from these stats and for this transfer as a whole?  

Well, it is clear from the rather high .68 goal and assist per game that Caicedo is rightfully deemed a “super sub”, over-performing his expected .47 goals and assists quite considerably.

Džeko decisively under-performed his expected .78 that season, as was previously written on when Lukaku departed last summer transfer.  

And Coach Inzaghi clearly trusts the man to be just that, even if he never confidently held the starting man role at Lazio; most likely due to Correa.

Correa is probably more closer to his playing style then Džeko too, both being a bit more agile on the ball and completing dribbles.  

Giving the coach his optimal front-man in Correa, and securing his trusted backup, Caicedo, seems like a solid move. 

Obviously, the pairing of Laturo and Džeko has done well, each of them with a combined “xG+xA” of .7 per game, but Laturo still needs to turn those “expected goals” into goals.

Having Correa there to compete with “Turo”, and over-perform his own “xG” is great competition and motivation (hopefully).

The only downside to the Caicedo loan might only be the overabundance of backups once Correa is fit again; especially if, Perišić might be rotated into a backup target-man role since Gosens came in.  

Perišić is aging out of the Left-Mid role, and never fit as Left-Wingback, but he stands taller than them and is more of an aerial winner than any of the other backups; in fact, this season, he’s currently tied for third with Bastoni, only trailing Darmian and Ranocchia.

But yes, Caicedo’s  loan should help Inter overall.

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