xG Analysis Reveals Inter Milan Are This Season’s Champions League Dark Horse

Inter Milan made a miraculous run to the Champions League final in the 2022/23 season. Their Expected Goals total in this year’s group stage suggests they could make another deep run in European football’s elite competition.

xG is an advanced stat that uses factors like shot location, angle, and type of assist to measure how many goals a team should have produced. A look at this year’s Champions League expected goals stats shows the Nerazzurri had the fourth-highest total of any side during the group stage.

Inter’s xG total of 12.3 across the opening six games put them above contenders like Arsenal and Bayern Munich. 

Manchester City are the current bookmakers’ favourite to lift this season’s Champions League. They topped the xG table during the group stage, producing an impressive total of 17.

However, City’s group was the weakest. Their fixtures against Red Star and Young Boys certainly inflated their xG total.

xG Suggests Inter Milan Can Go Very Far In The Champions League

The same can’t be said for Inter, as their group featured Real Sociedad, Benfica and RB Salzburg, three teams with the quality to take points from traditionally bigger clubs like Inter.

Producing an xG of 12.3 in a competitive group demonstrates that Inter is a dark horse for this year’s trophy.

Atletico Madrid, whom Inter will face in the round of 16, had an xG of 8.3 during their group-stage campaign. Their group was at a similar level to Inter’s, but they produced a lower xG.

If Simone Inzaghi’s side can produce their best performance, they should be able to progress past the Spanish side.

The summer departure of high-profile squad members like André Onana and Marcelo Brozovic led many to suggest Inter could regress this year.

However, Inzaghi has guided them to the top of Serie A. Inter is now the big favourite to claim the Scudetto with a gap of seven points and a game in hand.

The Nerazzurri’s underlying Champions League xG numbers and impressive Serie A form indicate they have a solid chance of replicating last season’s Champions League successes.